The Toronto Blue Jays' rotation depth is a topic of much discussion and concern for fans and analysts alike. With key players like Max Scherzer, Shane Bieber, and Cody Ponce on the injured list, the team's starting lineup is looking a little thin. But what does this mean for the team's playoff hopes? Let's take a closer look at the situation and explore some of the key questions and concerns.
The Current State of Affairs
The Blue Jays' rotation has been a bit of a mixed bag lately. Scherzer, a 41-year-old veteran, has been dealing with a combination of right forearm tendinitis and left ankle inflammation. His five starts for the Blue Jays before landing on the IL were a bit of a rollercoaster, with one earned run in six innings on March 31st and two earned runs in another six innings on April 18th. However, he failed to complete three innings in his other three starts, which is a cause for concern.
Meanwhile, Bieber has been out since late March with right elbow inflammation. Ponce's return stateside lasted one start before an ACL sprain put him out until next year. More recently, Eric Lauer was traded to the Dodgers and José Berríos underwent Tommy John surgery, putting him out until midway through next year. The team is now giving starts to Patrick Corbin, who had a 5.47 ERA from 2021-25, which speaks to the Blue Jays' need for rotation depth.
The Importance of Rotation Depth
One thing that immediately stands out is the importance of rotation depth. The Blue Jays' rotation has a 3.86 ERA, which is ninth-best in the Majors. Their 4.9 fWAR ranks sixth-best, and Dylan Cease and Kevin Gausman are in the Top 10 of qualified starters. Trey Yesavage has a 1.07 ERA in five starts since returning from injury and has not yet allowed a home run. However, it's the back of the rotation that needs reinforcement.
The Risks and Uncertainties
One of the key risks is the lack of minor league experience for players like Spencer Miles, who was a Rule 5 pick this offseason. While he has a 2.17 ERA in 14 appearances, there's inherent risk in anybody with such little minor league experience (14 2/3 innings from 2022-24) and two major injuries (a back injury and Tommy John surgery). Miles has also made just one start in the Majors and has maxed out at 4 1/3 innings and 63 pitches in any appearance.
Corbin, on the other hand, has a 3.86 ERA in nine starts including today. However, there's little reason to believe that will be sustained. Corbin has been a below-average pitcher by ERA- in every season since 2020. Excluding his little-used slow curveball, his velocity is down across the board compared to 2025. Meanwhile, opponents' average exit velocity against Corbin has held constant, and he's had a 4.2% uptick in hard contact rate and a 6.37 expected ERA thus far.
The Return of Key Players
The good news is that key players are starting to return. Bieber will begin a rehab assignment on Monday, aiming for two innings in the Complex League, then progress to three innings in his next outing. Toronto's injury report has Bieber expected back in late June, which suggests he's in for a longer rehab assignment than Scherzer. That could mean Bieber only pitches half a season in the Majors, but that would still be Bieber's largest sample size since 2023, when he made 21 starts for the Guardians.
Scherzer, meanwhile, is expected to return in early- to mid-June. A return on the later side might be realistic if the veteran needs three or four rehab starts. While Scherzer comes with age and injury risks, it's hard to argue that someone with his track record and postseason experience won't at least be a viable depth starter.
The Broader Implications
The return of these key players will go a long way to ensuring the Blue Jays stay in the playoff hunt as the season goes on. If everyone were healthy, Cease, Yesavage, and Gausman would occupy the first three rotation spots. They could be followed by Bieber and Scherzer, with Miles continuing as a fireman out of the 'pen and Corbin as a long reliever. However, further injuries could change that picture.
In my opinion, the Blue Jays' rotation depth is a critical factor in their playoff hopes. While the team has been dealing with a number of injuries, the return of key players like Bieber and Scherzer will provide much-needed reinforcement. However, the team must also be prepared for the possibility of further injuries and must continue to build depth in the rotation to ensure a strong finish to the season.
